Thursday, July 24, 2014

Ukraine as exemplar for other Federation satellite states

Many analysts who note the sparring between Russia and the West think it's a resumption of the Cold War!  Ha!  Such analysts ought to be fired immediately and in their place should be analysts from Russia who know the Russian way of doing things.  That way is cheap (It's China's way, too). 

When the Russians saw it would take $15 billion to put the Ukraine back on its feet, it let the Ukraine work something out with the EU, anticipating Russia wouldn't need to pay the bill.  In point of fact, the Russian Federation of Independent States' Constitution suffers from a failure to specify what is to happen when one of the Satellites goes bankrupt.  And there's at least two countries in the Satellite configuration that's in the bankrupt category.

What the Ukraine did, however, was to virtually cut off substantial trade with Russia, favoring instead trade with EU countries.  In doing that, it becomes exemplar to the other Satellites.  However. Russia won't stand for the Ukraine's asserting its independent rights, because what it threatens is Russia's obtaining cheap goods and services from every Satellite, a leftover concept of the Empire.  In arguing for the reestablishment of the Empire, Putin seeks to guarantee that steady flow of products and services he pays want he wants to, threatening them with their loss  of independence through Russian military action.  He doesn't really need the Empire, all he needs is slave states, living in poverty, doing Russia's will.  He doesn't care whether or not they make Russian the official language of their countries!   After all, has not Putin learned English?

Here's the beloved Russian country, the Ukraine leading the way for the Satellites to remain free of Russian domination over them.  I'm sure Putin is aware of the political dynamics. 

What is needed is for the other independent Satellites to do likewise.  The best course of action for them all is to with-stay Russia's quota system for their goods and services--for them to refrain from trading on Russian terms and to instead seek to trade extensively with the West--the EU, etc.  Russia doesn't have enough  troops in its antiquated military arsenal to take on them all.  But it will take that kind of spunk to assure each's independence.  Cow-towing to Russia's trading demands will simply embolden Russia to embrace them all in its circle.  The Customs' Union is just one means for grabbing hold onto them and squeezing.

The question is, are the other Satellites willing to follow the Ukraine's lead and shake off Russia?

That the Russian businessmen have invested in EU enterprises virtually guarantees that if push comes to shove between Russia and the West, these businessmen lose their right to control where their invested monies go--not certainly back into Russia.  Still, the current conflict with Russia is not per se East vs.West.

The Satellites, acting in unison to bring Putin down, will assure them they remain free and independent from Russia.  Putin has to go,  despite the years left in his tenure, both for the sake of Russian business, and for the sake of Satellite independence--in my opinion (as I have argued elsewhere).  The West can help, but it's up to the Satellites to stand up for their own independence.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow-up: August 1, 2014

I have been in touch with the European Central Bank in Brussels.  They have the means to keep whatever country may suffer as a result of the sanctions that the EU countries have imposed against Russia; and any country in that category should make use of the Bank.

It is marvelous to see the Western countries united in its stand to isolate Russia should Putin continue to reign in power.  I had been hopeful that the Russian business community would see the stupidity in the policy of Russia's going it alone, but apparently they are behind him 80% of the way!

Please be reminded that NATO can legally assist whatever Satellite may need it.




No comments: